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REPORT: NC Legislature Races to Watch 2018

2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. This report has been updated to reflect spending by candidates, parties, and outside groups as well as more recent polling data in districts. As we get closer to the election, there are the 22 House and six Senate districts we believe are most likely to change parties this cycle. This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling, and qualitative factors, such as local issues and relative candidate strength.

These are analyses not endorsements: we’ve looked for races that could be competitive in the general election, but this shouldn’t be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another.

2018 House Races to Watch

2018 Senate Races to Watch

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The Dulin Factor: Part 1

Back in his seat, Dulin leaned over to a reporter: "Therein lies the Andy Dulin Factor," he said. "Nobody can do that as well as I can. It's not cocky. It's confident." Dulin, 52, is nothing if not confident.” (Charlotte Observer, 4/9/12)

Rep. Andy Dulin, once noted for his confident retail-style politics, has repeatedly failed to live up to his boasts. This begs the question, has the Andy Dulin Factor fizzled?

Dulin models Tommy Bahama at a 2012 Ballantyne After Dark fashion show
Photo: Ballantyne Breakfast Club

 

Dulin was called “George Bush-ish” for his fundraising in Charlotte City Council races despite several losses, but has failed to deliver in his first competitive House race

After second quarter campaign finance reports were filed last month, the Charlotte Observer reported that Democratic candidate for House District 104, lawyer Brandon Lofton, had almost twice as much on hand as the incumbent. Dulin’s City Council tactics, with money raised heavily from real estate developers who wanted his zoning votes, are not cutting it in higher profile races. Dulin, a long-time Charlotte insider, is being outraised by a first-time candidate.

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UPDATED REPORT: NC House Races to Watch 2018

With Democrats in 170 legislative seats, Republicans in 168, and even Libertarians and Constitution Party candidates filing in some seats, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. Additionally, with a record six constitutional amendments added to the ballot in the last month an already unpredictable cycle has been given an added twist.

This updated report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling, and candidate fundraising numbers with qualitative factors like local issues and relative candidate strength. In total, Real Facts NC thinks that 36 House races are shaping up to have competitive campaigns run by both of the major parties in districts that could conceivably go to either.

Democrats need to pick up four seats in the House and six seats in the Senate to break the supermajority. They need 16 seats in the House and 11 seats in the Senate to win the majority. Ten of the competitive House districts in this report are already held by Democrats.

A number of Democratic challengers have outraised their Republican opponents in races featured here. Already, outside spending on broadcast and mail has been reported in 12 of the districts featured in this report and it seems likely that more is on the way as August heats up.

Check out the report here

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UPDATED REPORT: NC Legislature Races to Watch 2018

With Democrats in 170 legislative seats, Republicans in 169, and even Libertarians filing in 35 legislative districts, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. And with no race on the ballot above Supreme Court, these elections will get more attention than ever before.

This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling plus qualitative factors like local issues and relative candidate strength. In total, we think that 35 House races and 13 Senate races are shaping up to have competitive campaigns run by both of the major parties in districts that could conceivably go to either. We have also identified a handful of other races worth keeping an eye on for other reasons.

We’ll look at the 35 House races and 13 Senate races we think will be the most competitive in the fall and a handfull of other races we think will be interesting to watch for other reasons. Read the House report here and the Senate report here

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REPORT: NC Legislature Races to Watch 2018

With Democrats in 170 legislative seats, Republicans in 169, and even Libertarians filing in 35 legislative districts, 2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. And with no race on the ballot above Supreme Court, these elections will get more attention than ever before.

This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling plus qualitative factors like local issues and relative candidate strength. In total, we think that 36 House races and 13 Senate races are shaping up to have competitive campaigns run by both of the major parties in districts that could conceivably go to either. We have also identified a handful of other races worth keeping an eye on for other reasons.

We’ll look at the 36 House races and 13 Senate races we think will be the most competitive in the fall and a handfull of other races we think will be interesting to watch for other reasons. 

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These 39 Republicans said they thought judges should be elected, rulings against their unconstitutional laws might have changed that

In 2012 Civitas asked candidates for office in NC if judges should continue to be elected by the voters. (2012 was the last time Civitas posted a survey.)

The answer from those that filled it out was a resounding yes.

27 current Republican members of the House said they agreed with the statement “Judges should continue to be elected by the voters.”

This included members such as Chris Malone, Debra Conrad, Ted Davis, and Jonathan Jordan.

Despite the widespread support for Judicial elections amongst the Republican caucus, rumors and even threats swirl that the Republican majorities in the legislature are considering moving to a legislative appointment process in the wake of several legal losses.

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A day late and a dollar short: Real Facts NC's step-by-step guide to remembering who sits on the committee you chair

After 13 years in the NC House of Representatives, even the simple tasks can apparently become confusing.

Just ask Representative Nelson Dollar (R-Wake), who, in yesterday’s House Appropriations Committee meeting, could hardly remember who belongs to the committee (of which he is the senior chairman) and who doesn’t.

After Representative Pricey Harrison (D-Guilford) raised her hand to debate an amendment and said her name aloud when Dollar failed to identify her from the front of the room, he asked, “Representative Harrison, are you on this committee?” to which she answered, “I am.”

 

To prevent this from happening again, Real Facts NC has compiled a step-by-step manual to help Rep. Dollar and any other weary members of the General Assembly remember the names and positions of their own colleagues.

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North Carolina Legislator Profile: Rep. Jonathan Jordan (R-Ashe, Watauga)

In this Real Facts Legislator Profile, we focus on Rep. Jonathan Jordan, the Republican Representative from District 93. He was first elected in 2010 in a victory decided by fewer than 800 votes. He currently chairs the committees on Education, Homelessness, Foster Care and Dependency, the House Select Committee on Administrative Procedure Laws, and House Judiciary III. Jordan, an attorney, spent two years as the first research director at the conservative John Locke Foundation from 1997-1999, a 501(C)(3) research institute that espouses conservative ideals. He also served as the director for a tax-exempt pregnancy care center in Ashe County with the primary purpose of pseudo-science anti-abortion counseling. When he ran in 2010, Art Pope and outside groups flooded money into his campaign in a Koch-sponsored effort to flip the state legislature. Since his election, Jordan has pushed Pope ideals at the expensive of working people in North Carolina. Read more on Jordan here.

(NCFEP, Spending by Outside Groups in North Carolina General Assembly Races, 2010 Election Cycle, retrieved 6/21/12)
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North Carolina Legislator Profile: Rep. Chris Malone (R-Wake)

In this Real Facts Legislator Profile, we focus on Rep. Chris Malone, the Republican representative from District 35 and Deputy Majority Whip for the 2017-2018 legislative session. He was first elected in 2012 and currently serves as the chair of the Wildlife Resources Committee and the Appropriations on Health and Human Services Committee and vice chair of the Appropriations Committee. Malone’s political career started over 15 years ago as a Wake Forest Town Commissioner in 2001. He was on the Wake County School Board in 2009 until his resignation in 2012. During his time on the school board, he was called a “hard-liner” who “served without distinction.” As a Representative, Malone has sponsored bills that aimed to restore partisan judicial elections and bar federal Medicaid expansion. After being delinquent at least 25 times paying them, Malone tried to repeal motor vehicle renewal and property taxes – while voting to raise sales taxes on working families. Read more here.

Summary

  • Since 2002, Malone has been delinquent on personal property taxes at least 25 times
  • During his time on the school board, he:
    • was accused of burglary following an alleged affair with another board member, supported private school vouchers
    • looked to install less expensive heating, cooling, and ventilation systems in schools
    • worked to replace diversified schools with neighborhood schools
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Legislator Profile: Scott Stone and Andy Dulin (R-Mecklenburg)

In the next two installments of Real Facts NC's series of legislator profiles we focus on Charlotte-area representatives Scott Stone and Andy Dulin. 

Stone was appointed to the District 105 seat by former Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016 and is currently serving his first full term after winning the election in November. Before serving in the NC House, Stone had tried and failed at least three times to enter the world of politics: he ran for the Arlington County Board in 1996 and ran for Charlotte mayor in 2011 and 2015. Rep. Scott Stone did not think the NCGA should change HB2 until Charlotte changed its own ordinance, even though HB2 cost Charlotte at least $100 million and he opposed all parts of Charlotte’s non-discrimination ordinance, including protection for LGBT community. Stone claims he is concerned about education, but supported a Republican budget that shortchanges NC teachers and students. Read more on Stone here

Similarly, Dulin was elected to the District 104 seat in 2016 and is currently serving his first full term. Before serving in the NC House, Dulin tried and failed at least three times to enter the world of politics outside the Charlotte City Council. He ran for the Mecklenburg County Commission in 2004, ran for NC Senate in the 2008 primary, and Congress in 2012. Dulin is an out-of-touch member of Charlotte’s elite, putting his own advancement above the will of constituents and pushing the needs of corporations over students and teachers. Additionally, Dulin supported a measure that would make nondiscrimination ordinances subject to referendum less than a year after HB2 cost Charlotte millions. Read more on Dulin here

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