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REPORT: NC Legislature Races to Watch 2018

2018 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. This report has been updated to reflect spending by candidates, parties, and outside groups as well as more recent polling data in districts. As we get closer to the election, there are the 22 House and six Senate districts we believe are most likely to change parties this cycle. This report combines an analysis of district voting data, national and state polling, and qualitative factors, such as local issues and relative candidate strength.

These are analyses not endorsements: we’ve looked for races that could be competitive in the general election, but this shouldn’t be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another.

2018 House Races to Watch

Here is a closer look at 22 House races to watch, 19 of which would be Democratic pickups, three of which would be Republican pickups. Democrats would need to pick up a net four seats to break the supermajority and 16 to win a majority in the House.

2018 Senate Races to Watch

Here is a closer look at the six Senate races to watch, all would be Democratic pickups and would be needed to break the Republican supermajority in the Senate.

We have already begun releasing updated profiles of the legislators and candidates in many of these districts, stay tuned for more!